What Can We Say About Mobility in France in an Uncertain Future? Carbone 4’s Scenario-Based Approach

 Normandy Bridge over the Seine River near the city of Le Havre, France[/caption]

Why use a scenario-based approach?

In Europe at least, economic activities will face, in the coming years and decades, increasing constraints (in terms of volume and/or price) on certain strategic non-renewable resources, particularly oil.¹ This casts significant uncertainty on the future of transportation—which is 95% dependent on oil—and particularly on that of private cars, which, under a “laissez-faire” scenario, are likely to be increasingly constrained by energy availability.

If we look at the situation over the course of a century—a timeframe that may seem long but is often very relevant when considering transportation infrastructure—average speeds have continued to increase, as have travel distances, all while real costs have steadily decreased.

A careful examination of the situation shows that this outcome was only possible thanks to a growing energy supply at decreasing real prices. If this is to change in the future, economic actors (not just those in the transportation sector) must ensure that their projects remain relevant in futures that could be very different from “business as usual.” This decline began well before the 2009 crisis and likely played a role in it. not just the transportation sector) will need to ensure that their projects remain relevant in futures that may be very different from “business as usual.” Public policy decisions must also be informed by assessments based on an “uncertain future”—that is, assessments capable of remaining relevant across contrasting economic scenarios.

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