Study of the Four Pathways of the National Debate on Energy Transition

In early 2014, Carbone 4 conducted a comparative analysis of the four DNTE trajectories for the MEDDE. This educational, transparent, and neutral analysis clarifies the key variables of the scenario planning, the preferred public policy measures and their impact, as well as the technologies considered in the four trajectories, in preparation for the upcoming Energy Transition Programming Act. It is broken down by sector (residential, commercial, transportation, agriculture, and industry) to detail all possible strategies for the evolution of energy demand, thereby allowing for a consideration of the full range of possibilities for the future. For example, the four trajectories envisage the renovation of at least 350,000 housing units per year on average over the 2010–2050 period, a reduction in the modal share of cars in favor of public transportation, and the deployment of electric, hybrid, or gas-powered vehicles. Beyond these commonalities, the four trajectories offer contrasting visions of how energy demand (and thus energy efficiency efforts) will evolve: ranging from a 20% reduction (DEC) to a 50% reduction (EFF and SOB) by 2050 compared to 2010.

Similarly, the report analyzes projections for energy production trends both overall and by energy sector. The share of renewable energy in final energy consumption is thus projected to range from 40% (DEC) to 90% (SOB) in 2050, with a wide variation in the penetration of renewable energy by sector (electricity, gas, networks).

Beyond certain discrepancies between the trajectories and France’s energy and climate goals, it is worthwhile to analyze the four trajectories to highlight the diversity of assumptions underlying energy modeling exercises. Even if, overall, certain targets are not met, the trajectories effectively shed light on the variety of options in terms of sector-specific policies and energy sources. Finally, this report may contribute to defining the parameters for a future exercise in modeling and steering the energy transition in France. It helps define the key indicators to be analyzed and published as part of energy forecasting exercises for France. It also identifies certain key parameters to monitor in order to steer the energy transition—overall, by sector, and by energy carrier. The Carbone 4 report can be downloaded here.