Storm Warning: What’s the Right Compass for a Practical and Resilient Real Estate Market?

Executive Summary

The housing crisis, which has been ongoing for many months now, reminds us every day of the sharp decline in the number of new housing units approved and started in France (by the end of 2025, still about 20% below the average level observed before the health crisis[1]).

However, the projected change in the number of households (based on demographic projections linked to changing lifestyles—such as households splitting up, population aging, and residential mobility, as well as the rise of remote work), as well as the need to address substandard housing and ensure a geographic balance between supply and demand, confirm the need to plan for and organize the provision of additional housing over the coming years. The most recent benchmark study on this subject is the one produced by the SDES[2] which results in a projected need (central scenario) for 4 million additional primary residences by 2050[3][4].

Historically, this “need for new housing” has been considered equivalent to a “need for new homes,” which is synonymous with local economic vitality. However, these new construction projects have also led to urban sprawl and, consequently, to significant consumption of natural and agricultural land, as well as a high carbon footprint and high resource consumption. Consequently, on the one hand, the environmental emergency (whether it involves climate change, biodiversity loss, or soil conservation) compels us to thoroughly reevaluate our new housing construction activities, and at the same time, social and economic imperatives (particularly regarding the link between housing and employment) compel us to plan just as quickly for the provision of additional, accessible housing[5].

This dual challenge can also be viewed as an opportunity to transform the real estate industry (construction, management, and development of buildings) in the current context. Indeed, the real estate sector requires, above all, a high degree of predictability regarding the regulatory, economic, and tax environment in which companies operate. In fact, the instability of the rules and proposed solutions creates major vulnerabilities for the sector—far more so than the constraints associated with those same rules.

However, while the ecological imperative is a necessity for us, it can serve as the catalyst for a planned and sustainable construction policy—and thus create the conditions for a framework conducive to the development of real estate activities. To achieve this, we must clearly define this imperative so that it is understood and embraced by all, and then translate it into effective pathways for progress, that is, into concrete solutions tested by those on the ground, in order to pool our efforts and put the sector to work in meeting the essential need for housing.

Taking a step back, we can see that avenues for optimization already exist, although they have yet to be defined and tested in practice: utilizing vacant properties, converting offices or retail spaces into housing, increasing the density of existing buildings (through extensions, adding stories, or subdividing units), or undertaking ambitious renovations of housing that is now obsolete (or even unfit for habitation). The solution may therefore already be largely in place. However, two major requirements must accompany these changes in industry practices: ensuring a shift away from fossil fuels through a low-carbon agenda—both in the materials used and in the energy performance of the housing produced—and ensuring a precise alignment between the supply of new housing and regional needs.[6].

While identifying these “sources” is a crucial first step, it will also be necessary to create a framework conducive to these alternative approaches to new housing development. This will certainly involve revisiting the legislation, as reflected in the proposed bill “to ensure a successful land-use transition.”[7] but also to foster the emergence of new collective visions of housing: to revitalize social ties and the potential of existing structures, to highlight resilience at the neighborhood level, and to move beyond the notion that new housing alone can fully contribute to comfort and quality of life.

Addressing all of these challenges in all their complexity, is precisely the mission Carbone 4 has set for itself: to help decision-makers develop a strategic roadmap to ensure the resilience of their companies’ business models in an economy increasingly constrained by planetary boundaries. This involves identifying ways to reduce dependence on fossil fuels while keeping implementation costs under control (Carbone 4 Consulting + Low-Carbon Prescribers Hub), and to assess the resilience of assets and their ecosystem in the face of climate disruption that is already underway (OCARA[8]) and to project the business model within a framework of changing constraints through strategic foresight (IF Initiative[9]).