Strain on the power grid during peak winter demand

Carbone 4 conducted a study titled "Strain on the power grid during peak winter demand". Find the Full report here and the summary below:

Peak Demand for Grid Energy

During periods of extreme cold, it’s common to hear about “peak electricity demand,” which can cause the power grid to experience a “blackout.” What characterizes this peak demand, and what are its actual consequences? Carbone 4 conducted a study on this topic to clarify the ins and outs of the issue.

The peak in electricity demand occurs when the power demand on the electrical grid is at its highest during a given year. It is a combination of seasonal and daily factors. The seasonal peak corresponds to the time of year when consumption is highest: in France, this occurs in the winter, as energy is used for heating (in some parts of the world, the peak may occur in the summer if air conditioning is widely used). The daily peak corresponds to the time of day when consumption is highest. In France during the winter, it occurs around 7:00 p.m., as this is when the most appliances are in use simultaneously: lighting, cooking, audiovisual equipment, etc.

Demand in France peaks in January–February at 7 p.m., depending on the severity of the weather.

February 8, 2012: A record for consumption

Carbone 4 analyzed this phenomenon, particularly during the historic event of February 8, 2012, which was the day the record for peak power demand on France’s power grid was set at 102 GW at 7:00 p.m. February 8, 2012, occurred during an exceptionally severe cold snap that placed heavy demands on all energy sources (electricity, gas) to maintain temperatures in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings.

On that same day, the other major grid energy source—natural gas—also broke its peak demand record, reaching 158 GW. While an event of this magnitude remains exceptional and requires very careful management, both the electricity and natural gas grids managed to weather the cold snap without any outages or load shedding.

Thermosensitivity: A Reflection of Usage Patterns

The higher the temperature drops, the higher the peak demand becomes: this is known as temperature sensitivity, which refers to the additional power demand for each degree of temperature drop, expressed in MW/°C. When the outdoor temperature drops by 1°C, approximately 7,700 MW of additional power is required from the electricity grid (2,300 MW) and the natural gas network (5,400 MW).

This thermal sensitivity is only partially related to residential heating: residential heating accounts for about two-thirds of the thermal sensitivity of natural gas and half of the thermal sensitivity of electricity.

The service sector, industry, specific applications, and portable heating devices account for the other half: attention must also be paid to these uses.

How will peak demand change in the future?

New trends such as electric mobility, building retrofits, the transition to more energy-efficient lighting, the expansion of renewable electricity generation, demand response and market-based solutions, as well as the situation in our European neighboring countries, are all factors that will influence the future criticality of peak electricity demand. This will be the subject of an upcoming study by Carbone 4.

By Benoit Lemaignan and Jean-Yves Wilmotte