Heating Europe Without Fossil Fuels by 2050: Carbone 4 Explores the Potential of Small Modular Reactors

While heat production accounts for nearly 40% of Europe’s energy needs, decarbonizing it remains the “forgotten giant” of the energy transition. Carbone 4 is publishing today a study modeling a scenario to achieve this decarbonization by 2050. While a decline in demand and the massive expansion of district heating networks are absolute prerequisites, current technologies may not be sufficient to meet projected demand. The scenario developed by Carbone 4 indicates a residual need of 25%, for which SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) could provide a significant solution in the long term.

Changing Scales: The 2,000 TWh Challenge

The Carbone 4 study models the conditions needed to achieve the goal of decarbonizing heat in Europe. The first of these is demand management: Europe must reduce its energy needs through energy-efficient renovations and energy conservation. Next, the goal is clear: to supply 2,000 TWh of low-carbon heat by 2050.

To achieve this goal, one of the main drivers is the District Heating Network (RCU). The study recommends tripling the share of district heating networks, from 15% today to 40% in 2050.

“It is imperative to scale up district heating networks if we truly want to phase out fossil fuels for heating and hot water. However, our modeling reveals a physical limit: even if we secure the regulatory, financial, and industrial resources needed to achieve this ambition, current solutions are essential but may not be sufficient to meet the entire projected demand by 2050.”— Michaël Margo, Senior Manager, Co-Head of the Energy Division at Carbone 4.

Is there a likely lack of solutions for achieving these goals?

By analyzing the potential of each sector, the study reaches the following conclusion:

• Geothermal energy and waste heat, which are the top priorities, are limited by geography and will only be able to meet about 30% of the networks' needs;
• Large heat pumps, biomass, and solar thermal—based on current market conditions and credible development assumptions—would account for approximately 45% of the energy mix;
• This suggests a potential shortfall of about 25% of the requirement.

SMRs: An Opportunity to Bridge This Gap?

The Carbone 4 study identifies an opportunity for SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) to bridge this gap of approximately 25%. Modular nuclear power would indeed provide stable, controllable generation that complements renewable and waste-to-energy sources.

For manufacturers, the challenge now is to demonstrate their ability to produce SMRs within the projected costs and timelines. In Europe, this technological solution is increasingly viewed as a credible option: it is being incorporated into energy planning efforts and is being discussed in terms of regulation and financing. The successful implementation of the first projects between 2030 and 2035 will be decisive in determining whether or not a broader deployment of SMRs in district heating networks is feasible.

“The Carbone 4 study confirms our vision: the massive need to expand and decarbonize district heating networks. Calogena’s SMRs are designed to help address this challenge—as part of an energy mix—by offering a combustion-free, stable, and controllable solution.”— Julien Dereux, CEO of Calogena.

About CALOGENA

Calogena is a company founded in 2021 with a unique mission in response to the challenge of the energy transition: decarbonizing district heating networks. To provide a solution commensurate with the scale of the problem—one that can be deployed on a large scale—Calogena is developing a low-power boiler powered by nuclear energy. Its main benefit is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from heat production. Its compact, simple, and safe design enables Calogena to aim for the fastest possible deployment, starting in 2030. Calogena is a subsidiary of the Gorgé industrial group.

More information at www.calogena.com

About CARBONE 4

Led by Jean-Marc Jancovici, Laurent Morel, and Alain Grandjean, Carbone 4 is an independent consulting firm and a leader in climate strategy, energy transition, climate change adaptation, and biodiversity conservation. Its teams support public and private sector stakeholders in the transition to a low-carbon economy that is resilient to climate change.

More information at www.carbone4.com

PRESS CONTACT

PLEAD Agency (Calogena)

• Antoine Ernoult
  • Tel. +33 (0)6 42 02 28 46
  • antoine.ernoult@plead.fr

ORG Agency (Carbon 4)

• Emmanuel Bercault
  • Tel. +33 6 49 87 60 95
  • emmanuel.bercault@omc.com
• Victor Morelle
  • Tel. +33 6 18 83 59 55
  • victor.morelle@omc.com