Carbone 4 Study: "Is the French government providing the resources needed to achieve its climate goals?"

Press Release

As part of the City of Grande-Synthe’s appeal before the Council of State, the four organizations involved in the “Case of the Century” (Notre Affaire à Tous, the Nicolas Hulot Foundation, Greenpeace France, and Oxfam France) commissioned the firm Carbone 4 to address the following question: Can the French government meet its climate goals by 2030?

The study, published on Wednesday, February 24, concludes that, given the current state of measures taken or planned, France will be structurally unable to meet the goal of a 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.

In fact, the study focuses on the Concrete, physical factors influencing France's GHG emissions. It thus seeks to assess the extent to which government action will—or will not—enable these changes to be implemented deeply enough to reach the required levels by 2030.

The study shows, first of all, that there is a logical dependency, as part of a just transition, between achieving France’s GHG reduction target and achieving the right level of ambition for a handful of “structural” parameters of the transition. These parameters include, for example, the number of homes to be renovated, the size of the cattle herd, and the projected growth in rail traffic by 2030.

Eleven Key Parameters Measures covering the majority of the reduction potential are then identified in three key sectors (passenger transportation, housing, and agriculture).

The study estimates the the level that each of these parameters must reach by 2030 to be consistent with the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC). She then compares them with the a level that will likely be reached by 2030 thanks to the measures the government has implemented or plans to implement to date.

The study concludes that, of the eleven parameters, nine will not meet the required standard. This delay in addressing key structural factors will inevitably lead to a significant delay in reducing GHG emissions in these three key sectors.

The study briefly analyzes the remaining sectors of the economy in order to rule out the possibility that they might offset this lag.

In conclusion, France does not appear to have the structural capacity to meet its 2030 climate goals, given the measures already taken. The existence of policies that are harmful to the climate, along with the upcoming increase in the European climate target, are all aggravating factors.

It is therefore necessary for the government to implement additional measures to put the country back on a path consistent with the medium- and long-term goals that France has set for itself.