Summer 2022: A Bitter Preview of Climate Change’s Impact on Transportation

Heat waves, massive wildfires, thunderstorms… the summer that just ended was exceptional in France^[1] as is the case around the world. The arrival of fall is an opportunity for Carbone 4 to reflect on the physical impact of these events on transportation and to understand what they reveal about the future of transportation.

The Effects of Climate Change Are Already Being Felt

Our transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events. In France, this is already the case for all modes of transportation: rail, road, sea, inland waterways, and air.

For rail, This summer's weather events led to a great many delays. In fact, as these educational videos from the SNCF clearly explain^[2], rails and overhead wires are sensitive to heat. And what is true for the SNCF is also true for public transportation (trams and subways), especially when they operate outdoors^[3]. Furthermore, electrified lines rely on infrastructure—such as transformers—which are themselves directly affected by extreme heat. In July, the heat wave caused a complete power outage on a Thalys train. The result: a total delay of 12 hours, including more than 4 hours spent waiting trapped inside at 40°, to the point that some exasperated passengers resorted to breaking the windows with a glass-breaking hammer.^[4] !

For the road, in addition to, for example, the pollution spikes recurring during heat waves^[5] which have resulted in lower speed limits, some regions have faced catastrophic impacts. Climate-related hazards have affected not only the operation of infrastructure but also, directly, its structural integrity. For example, in Guadeloupe, the landslides caused by Storm Fiona on September 17–18 damaged many roads, while the rising rivers tore down bridges^[6].

For maritime and inland waterway transport, The example of the Rhine is the most striking. The drought that the region experienced brought river traffic to a standstill for several days. In fact, with water levels below 40 cm in Kaub—the main reference point—a large number of barges had to sail with partial loads or even stop sailing altogether. Following a similar drought on the Rhine in 2018, Deutsche Bank estimated that it had cost Germany: no less than 0.2% of its GDP^[7].

For the plane...you only have to look across the English Channel to see the most striking impacts. In mid-July, Lutton Airport—the 14th-largest in the United Kingdom—had to suspend its flights. The reason: part of the runway, which has a defect, had begun to melt^[8].

Consequences that are bound to get worse

These weather phenomena that affect transportation are expected to worsen as a result of global warming. The year 2022 may seem exceptional compared to previous years, but climate forecasts suggest that the worst is yet to come in the years and decades ahead.

Damage to infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, the risk of landslide affecting roads is expected to increase in Europe, particularly in regions such as Alsace^[9]. Similarly, the risk of flooding on railroad tracks coulddouble or even triple in Europe^[10]. The sea level rise will also pose a threat to all modes of transportation, as illustrated in this infographic^[11].

Overall, however, it would seem that it is the heat waves which poses the greatest threat to transportation due to the buckling (deformation under stress) of roads, railways, and bridge structures, as well as the melting of road asphalt and the softening of pavement material^[12].
In total, in Europe: Costs of Damage to Transportation Infrastructure Caused by Extreme Weather Events could rise from about 600 million euros on average per year, at 3 billion from 2010 to 2040, 6 billion from 2041 to 2070, and finally 12 billion euros per year between now and the end of the century^[13]!

Time for Action

Unfortunately, the summer of 2022 is just a taste of the challenge that lies ahead for the transportation sector as it adapts to the physical consequences of climate change. For network managers, operators, public authorities, and all other stakeholders in the sector, it is time to realize that—whether it comes to adaptation or reducing greenhouse gas emissions—it is time to act, and quickly.