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[MyCO2] Average French carbon footprint: How is it calculated?
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Since the last October 2021 Update by the Ministry of Ecological Transition (MTE), carbon footprint[1] average in France in 2019 – the most recent year for which figures are available, excluding COVID-19 – amounts to 9.0 metric tons of CO2eq[2] per person. We explained in this LinkedIn post What was the main methodological change in this major update?
The method used is based on “input-output” calculations derived from the symmetric input-output tables of national accounts, and takes into account the three main greenhouse gases (GHGs): fossil carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Several limitations are evident in this carbon footprint calculated by the Ministry: the failure to account for imported deforestation (since biogenic CO2[3]), three other GHGs (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6), and water vapor from aircraft contrails. This publication therefore aims to explain how we “supplemented” this carbon footprint by addressing these three identified limitations, and to share our results.
The latest input-output tables The Ministry’s (TES) estimates put the average carbon footprint of a French person at 9.0 tCO2eq/year. These emissions are broken down into 64 sectors of activity or products, represented by NAF codes (French Classification of Economic Activities), and divided between private and public spending. We can therefore determine, for each “producer” sector (which sells) and each “consumer” sector (which buys), which emissions are linked to private spending and which are linked to public spending.
Based on this data, we classify emission sources into 5 categories[4], listed here from the highest-emitting to the lowest-emitting:
We then add several factors to this baseline of 9.0 tCO2eq/year.
The first corresponds to the condensation trails, that is, the clouds seen trailing behind airplanes and created by the condensation of water vapor emitted by their engines. Since these contrails are not included in the carbon footprint published by the Ministry, we are adding them to our footprint for the sake of completeness, as they also contribute to the greenhouse effect. They are thus responsible for 186 kg CO2eq/year[6] GHG emissions per person, which we add to the item I'm traveling – By plane.
We then add the emissions associated with the imported deforestation (biogenic CO2)—that is, GHG emissions resulting from deforestation occurring abroad but caused by our consumption. These emissions are twofold: they include both emissions from forest burning (immediate emissions) and those associated with the loss of carbon sinks (future emissions).
We rely primarily on the study Agricultural and forestry trade accounts for a large share of emissions from tropical deforestation (Pendril et al.), published in 2019 and cited by the High Council for Climate in its report Controlling France's Carbon Footprint. Based on this study, we can categorize the 402 kgCO2eq/year related to imported deforestation:
Finally, we take into account 3 other GHGs not yet accounted for by the Ministry, forissues related to methodological consistency and data availability: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). These gases are responsible for approximately 293 kg CO2eq/year emissions per person after adjusting for imports and exports. Since these emissions are not included in the Ministry’s official figures, we estimate them based on the data SECTEN (published by CITEPA[9] and allocate them based on the TES (exports have been subtracted and imports added). This process yields the following breakdown:
Gas | I'm eating | I'm finding a place to live | I'm buying | I'm on my way | Public Expenditures | Total |
HFC | 136.2 | 38.9 | 18.8 | 50.3 | 41.5 | 285.7 |
SF6 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.6 |
PFC | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
Total | 136.5 | 41.6 | 21.4 | 50.3 | 42.8 | 292.5 |
Once the emissions of these three gases have been broken down into our five categories, they are allocated proportionally to the subcategories shown in the chart below.
These figures therefore add 0.9 tCO2eq to the Ministry's official figure. Here is the graph showing France's carbon footprint in 2019, estimated by MyCO2 at 9.9 tCO2eq per person per year :
The breakdown of emissions is as follows:
Finally, 1,400 kg CO2eq/year are associated with public spending, whether for administration and defense (32%), education (31%), health care (16%), or infrastructure (14%).
1.
Carbon Footprint is a calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the country’s domestic final demand (final consumption and investment). The footprint consists of direct emissions from households (housing and cars), emissions from domestic production (excluding exports), and emissions from foreign economic activities whose output is intended for import into the country (source: Ministry of Ecological and Solidarity Transition).
2.
The CO2 equivalent is a unit of measurement for the warming potential of a greenhouse gas on the atmosphere, allowing for comparisons between emissions from different greenhouse gases.
3.
The Biogenic CO2 is the CO2 contained in biomass of agricultural or forestry origin, emitted during its combustion or decomposition, as well as that contained in soil organic matter. Regardless of its origin—biogenic or fossil—a CO2 molecule has the same effect on the greenhouse effect. However, unlike fossil fuels, biomass can be renewed on a human timescale, with cycles of varying lengths (annual crops, forests) (source: ADEME).
4.
On the data from the Ministry, a few adjustments were also made to the categorization to better interpret the results by category:
-Reclassification of gross fixed capital formation by sector (households, businesses, and the government) and, in the case of businesses, by final use category
-Shift from a sector-based classification to a product-based classification (“what is being sold” rather than “what type of company is selling it”)
-Switch from base prices to purchase prices, to ensure a monetary benchmark comparable to the €1,257 billion in final household expenditure (INSEE 5.201D: Final Household Consumption Expenditure by Product at Current Prices)
5.
The decision was made to include the entire public spending, approximately 600 billion euros in the input-output tables for the “General Government” and “ISBLM” categories, rather than summing the NAF codes corresponding to the “Health, Education, and Public Services” sector for the item Public services.
6.
This data is derived from the MTES input-output tables, based on the assumption of a factor of 2 (carbon basis) for emissions from kerosene combustion.
7.
38% for Fruits and Vegetables, 27% for Meat, 21% for Beverages, 10% for "Other," 3% for Milk and Eggs and 1% for Poisson.
8.
86% in favor of Others and 14% for Clothing.
9.
Since the SECTEN data are territorial, first of all, to return to a carbon footprint perspective, subtract the portion associated with the exports and add the portion to it imported. To do this, we consider the share of exports and imports for the NAF categories in the TES and establish correspondences between these categories and those in SECTEN. We then estimate the share of imports and exports in SECTEN by extrapolating from the TES. Once this step is complete, we have the estimated carbon footprint associated with these three new GHGs. We then allocate the emissions by SECTEN category across the five categories in the graph using TES data for the corresponding categories.
10.
The sector UTCATF (Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) makes it possible to account for CO2 fluxes between various terrestrial reservoirs (biomass, soils, etc.) and the atmosphere that occur on managed land areas within a territory. It can thus act as a net source or a net sink of CO2 (source: INSEE).
The CO2 emissions taken into account by MyCO2 are those classified as “outside UTCATF France,” which means that we consider total fossil CO2 emissions and biogenic CO2 emissions (or UTCATF) emitted outside of France. Why not take French biogenic emissions into account? To ensure consistency with official figures (source: 2022 Climate Key Figures – page 42 – MTES), we continue to use a net balance approach for the UTCATF category. In 2019, net UTCATF emissions were -30.7 MtCO2eq, or -458 kg CO2eq per person (source: 2022 Climate Key Figures). Thus, we know that carbon neutrality aims to align France’s biogenic emissions—that is, what our ecosystems can absorb each year—with the carbon footprint published by MyCO2. The goal of carbon neutrality, as defined by the Carbone 4's Net Zero Initiative Framework is to align these 458 kgCO2eq with France’s carbon footprint of 9.9 tCO2eq by 2050, by focusing on three factors: reducing the carbon footprint, increasing the amount that carbon sinks can capture annually, and reducing land-use change (particularly urbanization).
11.
The " others "include, respectively:"
· Food : legumes, grains, dried fruits, processed foods, sugar, etc.
· Other modes of transportation : transportation by sea, river, and rail
· Public Expenditures : social services, transportation, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing of equipment, furniture, etc.
· Purchases : wholesale and retail trade, legal and accounting services, social services, mail services, etc.
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