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Is a low-carbon mineral fertilizer that isn't derived from fossil fuels realistic?
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With the contribution of
Alexandre Joly
Senior Manager / Department leader
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The crisis in the Middle East—and in particular the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—has caused natural gas prices to skyrocket and has physically blocked the export of very large volumes of fertilizer produced in the region.
These developments have affected global fertilizer prices. Indeed, even though fertilizers imported into France do not pass through this strait, the global price of urea rose from 570€/t in early March to 803€/t on April 9, 2026. This increase jeopardizes the entire agri-food sector and contributes to the risk of rising prices in France and Europe.
The volatility of fertilizer prices due to the geopolitical context also serves as a reminder that, from a climate perspective, the agricultural sector must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and by 46% by 2050, compared to 2015 levels[1], thereby meeting the objectives set out in France's National Low-Carbon Strategy[2]. Since fertilizers account for an average of 60 to 90 percent of a crop’s emissions, it is essential to reduce their carbon footprint in order to achieve the sector’s goals, starting with the emissions associated with their production.
Decarbonization therefore addresses two challenges: ensuring self-sufficiency in a resource essential to agricultural systems and reducing the sector’s impact on climate change. Is the adoption of mineral fertilizers—including those produced without fossil fuels and with reduced carbon emissions—a viable option? To gain a clearer understanding, this article will examine pathways to decarbonizing mineral fertilizer synthesis and the associated emission reductions.
More than 60% of the fertilizer used in the European Union is imported[3]. In France, imports account for nearly 75% of nitrogen fertilizers and 100% of raw materials or finished phosphate and potash fertilizers. The main sources of French imports are outside Europe, particularly Egypt, the United States, and Algeria for nitrogen fertilizers. For fertilizers produced in France, French plants (such as those operated by Yara or Borealis) convert natural gas into ammonia, and then into ammonium nitrate.
Most French fertilizers do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but their price is linked to the global market and the cost of natural gas. Nevertheless, according to the article “Those Who Sow War Scarcely Sow Fertilizer” in the March 2026 issue of *Le Trésor public*, “between 20 and 30 percent of global maritime fertilizer exports pass through the strait.”[4]. The Gulf is therefore a major hub, not only for trade but above all for its production capacity, which is difficult to replace in the short term. This concentration of supply explains the immediate price sensitivity. In early April 2026, the price of 33.5% ammonium nitrate was approximately €606/t, compared to €500/t in early March; for urea, the price was approximately €570/t, compared to €803/t in early April.[5]. The increase is therefore 21% for ammonium nitrate and more than 40% for urea. This increase has a direct impact on farmers. It should be noted that prices have not yet reached the levels seen in the spring of 2022, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, when they exceeded 1,000 €/t for both ammonium nitrate and urea.
In an uncertain geopolitical context, moving away from fossil-fuel-based fertilizers is no longer just a climate issue; it is also a matter of sovereignty and of reducing economic risks for the entire agri-food sector.
Let's start with a little bit of semantics.
Fertilizers produced with lower emissions are sometimes referred to as “low-carbon.” One might wonder what criteria justify such a designation. The Sectoral Transition Plan for the Ammonia Industry in France, published by ADEME[6] distinguishes between the concepts of "renewable" and "low-carbon" as they apply to ammonia: The first is defined as electricity generated from a renewable energy source, while the second is defined as electricity generated—whether from renewable or non-renewable sources—that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by at least 70% compared to the fossil fuel baseline.. The same criteria could be applied to fertilizers. However, these definitions are subject to change: this complex subject is still evolving, and fertilizer classification is likely to be standardized at the European level.
Strictly speaking, to be classified as low-carbon, a fertilizer must have low emissions during production, generate few emissions when used, and, ideally, help sequester carbon.. As we saw in our second article in this series on fertilizers[7] that emissions from fertilizer manufacturing account for less than one-third of total emissions. Since the scope of this article is limited to fertilizer production, we will avoid referring to low-carbon fertilizers in the following discussion.
The strategies for reducing emissions can be divided into three main categories: conservation, efficiency, and substitution, as described below.
This model can be applied to fertilizer production. The first measure to prioritize in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level consistent with the agricultural sector’s decarbonization goals is to reduce the amount of fertilizer used. Fertilizer applications help maximize crop yields and, consequently, farmers’ revenue. However, as fertilizer prices rise, the challenge of optimizing these applications—that is, applying the amount of fertilizer that maximizes profit margins—is becoming increasingly critical. This strategy will not be discussed in detail in this article.
For a given amount of fertilizer, the production process can be decarbonized either by reducing emissions associated with the inputs used in manufacturing processes (efficiency), or by the search for alternatives to carbon-based inputs (substitution).
The French chemical industry has identified all potential avenues for reducing emissions across the sector—which can be applied by fertilizer manufacturers—in a roadmap published in 2021[8]. This roadmap describes the measures to reduce emissions at fertilizer production plants, whether they are emissions associated with the energy used in the mixing process or direct emissions resulting from chemical reactions. This document describes energy efficiency measures (the modernization of industrial equipment, process optimization, or waste heat recovery), such as Efficiency Measures to Reduce Fugitive Emissions (the development of catalytic technologies that reduce nitrous oxide emissions during the production of nitric acid, etc.), as well as substitution levers (example: heat generated from forest biomass[9], etc.) or from the incineration of waste. In total, A potential reduction of 26% is projected by 2030 whereas SNBC 3 aims for a 46% reduction in the industrial sector by 2030 (see Figure 2).
As a reminder, these measures account for less than a quarter of the emissions associated with fertilizer production; the remainder is attributable to the raw materials used to make them[10]. And decarbonizing raw material production requires a better understanding of how they are produced.
Among the the main raw materials used to make mineral fertilizers, we find ammonia and sulfuric acid[11]. In the rest of this article, we will examine the challenges involved in the production and decarbonization of these materials.
What is a “green manure”? It is a type of fertilizer in which replaced fossil ammonia, produced from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, by ammonia produced from green hydrogen, that is, hydrogen derived from renewable energy. Since ammonia is the most widely used raw material—and the one responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions in mineral fertilizer production—this substitution is one of the main decarbonization strategies being considered to reduce emissions from fertilizer raw materials.
Let's take a step back. The process for producing synthetic ammonia involves two highly polluting stages:
The first stage accounts for the majority of emissions from ammonia production (emissions related to Scope 1—energy—and Scope 3 in Figure 3, below). There are two main ways to decarbonize hydrogen production: the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) during steam reforming or the use of electrolysis powered by low-carbon electricity.
As shown in Figure 3, “carbon-intensive” or “low-carbon” ammonia production pathways can be described using color-based adjectives:
Blue ammonia and green ammonia offer the most promising reduction potentials compared to the average amount of ammonia used in the market : Blue has a 60% lower carbon footprint, and green has a 75% lower carbon footprint (see Figure 4). It should be noted that, although blue hydrogen is promising in terms of reducing climate impacts, it does not reduce our dependence on fossil gas. Furthermore, it is a costly process that is not widely used in France.
The ADEME Report on the Sectoral Transition Plan for the Ammonia Industry in France[14] points out that The choice between the two options does not depend on the will of a single actor, but on regional transition plans. Indeed, these technologies require the development of infrastructure to transport hydrogen or CO2 within the region. To reduce the very high investment costs and ensure that production sites operate at full capacity, they can only be implemented in industrial areas with significant potential for use. For CCS, nearby hydrocarbon reservoirs are also required to enable the final storage of CO2.
Given that a large portion of the ammonia and fertilizers used in France is imported (50% for ammonia and ammonium nitrate, 100% for nitrogen solutions in 2015[15]), Decarbonizing the ammonia produced in France cannot reduce emissions from all mineral fertilizers used in France. Beyond this issue of sovereignty, it is also important to note that the sector is highly exposed to international trade and, in particular, to fluctuations in fossil fuel prices. We are seeing this again today in the context of the crisis in the Middle East. The example of the closure of the Yara plant in Montoir-de-Bretagne, cited in our first article[16], is an example of this exhibition. Changing procurement and production methods would help reduce these risk exposures.
Let’s take a closer look at the solution with the lowest emissions—one that reduces our dependence on fossil fuels: green ammonia. Some manufacturers have already launched projects to produce fertilizer using hydrogen derived from on-site renewable energy, such as FertigHy[17]. Carbone 4's report on hydrogen[18] has shown that Ammonia is the second-highest priority use for low-carbon hydrogen after steel. It therefore seems justified to support this type of initiative.
Given that 180 kg of hydrogen is required per metric ton of ammonia, the energy requirement to produce all the ammonia currently manufactured in France using green hydrogen can be estimated at approximately 11 TWh.[19], or 2% of the total electricity generated in France in 2024 and just over 7% of electricity from renewable sources[20].
Even with a slight increase in ammonia production volumes (available projections point to moderate growth in ammonia demand—between 1 and 1.5% per year through 2030—consistent with the International Energy Agency’s trajectories[21]), allocating a portion of the electricity generated in France to green hydrogen production is a viable option, even if this requires a more in-depth study of potential conflicts over electricity use that we might face in the future (this issue does not arise today, as France is currently a net exporter of electricity).
Sulfuric acid is a An interesting case study showing that reducing the carbon footprint is not the only challenge of the low-carbon transition.
Since sulfuric acid is difficult to transport, it is almost always produced near the points of consumption and, in most cases, on-site from sulfur. Fertilizer manufacturers are among the leading consumers of sulfur, along with chemical and metallurgical companies. As a reminder, sulfuric acid is a key component of potassium and phosphorus fertilizers.
However, sulfur, in mineral or gaseous form, is derived 70% from fossil by-products, 20% from metallurgical by-products, and 10% from mining operations. In production, sulfuric acid has a relatively low carbon intensity per kilogram, approximately 0.2 kgCO2e per kilogram of sulfuric acid[22].
Beyond the carbon footprint, theSulfuric acid production poses a supply risk if the world moves away from fossil fuels and pollution offshoring. Indeed, low-carbon scenarios rely on a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, which directly affects potential sulfur production volumes: according to IEA scenarios, tensions are expected in this market. This raises various questions about the future of the market for this resource and, consequently, for sulfuric acid. Alternative methods of sulfur production exist, such as expanding dedicated mining areas or increasing co-production outside the oil and gas sector. For example, it is possible to recover gases during the production of metals (copper, zinc, nickel) from sulfide ores, making it important to plan for this. While the first solution raises questions about availability[23], while others concerning the environmental impacts of the latter are emerging.
France—and Europe as a whole—is currently highly dependent on gas producers and nitrogen fertilizer producers themselves. Even though there is no risk of a fertilizer supply shortage, the country is being hit hard by rising prices. It is therefore necessary to rethink the use and supply of these fertilizers.
In addition to requiring a significant investment and planning effort, the The development of new fertilizer plants with carbon-free production faces significant feasibility or supply constraints. Furthermore, even if the substitution and efficiency measures identified for the sector are fully implemented, this alone will not be enough to meet the reduction targets of the Paris Agreement within the scope of production.
There are various strategies for decarbonization, which fall into three categories: conservation, efficiency, and substitution. It is not a matter of choosing between these strategies, but of combining them. It is therefore It is essential to reevaluate the quantities used in current agricultural models and to make available mineral fertilizers that produce fewer emissions, which will help reduce the residual emissions associated with low-input agricultural models. This is not merely a matter of climate, but more broadly of the agricultural sector’s resilience in the face of international crises.
On the other hand, as we saw in the second article of our series, 50–70% of fertilizer emissions come from their use (emissions in the field). In a future article, we will attempt to identify the strategies that can reduce both field emissions and the volumes of mineral fertilizers used as inputs on farms.
1.
Objectives of SNBC 2 (Current National Low-Carbon Strategy, April 2026)
2.
Draft National Low-Carbon Strategy No. 3, “France: A Green Nation,” December 2025
3.
According to UNIFA (“Fertilizers: The 2024–2025 Report Confirms the Transformation of Agricultural Practices and Calls for Securing a Strong Industrial Base in France and Europe”), which cites the IRIS 2026 report.
4.
"Those Who Sow War Hardly Sow Fertilizer," Director General of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy, Finance, and Industrial, Energy, and Digital Sovereignty, March 13, 2026
5.
Terre-net, Prices and Market, Fertilizers (Ammonium Nitrate and Urea)
6.
Sectoral Transition Plan for the Ammonia Industry in France - Summary Report, ADEME, September 14, 2023
7.
Article 2: Carbon Footprint and Decarbonization Pathways for Mineral Fertilizers, https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-decarbonation-engrais-mineraux
8.
Publication of a Roadmap for Decarbonizing the Chemical Industry, CITEPA, May 27, 2021
9.
It should be noted that the use of forest biomass is appropriate, provided that the process requires high temperatures (> 200°C). Otherwise, other alternatives, such as heat pumps, are more environmentally friendly.
10.
Article 2: Carbon Footprint and Decarbonization Pathways for Mineral Fertilizers, https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-decarbonation-engrais-mineraux
11.
Figure 1, Article 2: Carbon Impact and Decarbonization Pathways for Mineral Fertilizers, https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-decarbonation-engrais-mineraux
12.
A process for producing hydrogen from hydrocarbons.
13.
For electricity generation to be considered low-carbon, the European Union has set a strict threshold of 100 g $CO2e/kWh. In France, the electricity mix ranges from 40 to 60 g $CO2e/kWh.
14.
Ammonia - Summary Report, Sectoral Transition Plan for the Ammonia Industry in France, ADEME, September 2023
15.
Figure 8 (page 20), Ammonia - Summary Report, Sectoral Transition Plan for the Ammonia Industry in France, ADEME, September 2023
16.
Article 1: Between Agricultural Progress and Environmental Crisis—The Fertilizer Paradox, https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-engrais-enjeux-environnementaux
17.
FertigHy.com
18.
Low-Carbon Hydrogen: What Are the Relevant Applications in the Medium Term in a Decarbonized World?, https://www.carbone4.com/publication-hydrogene-bas-carbone
19.
Assumptions: 56 kWh per kg of H2 and 1.1 Mt of ammonia produced in France
20.
Key Figures on French Electricity Generation in 2024, RTE, Preliminary Data - January 2025
21.
Ammonia Technology Roadmap, IEA
22.
Evoinvent Version 3.9
23.
Renewable energy will only be able to replace a small portion of today's oil and gas. (WEO 2023 NZE2050 scenario)
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