Low-carbon mobility: The government wants to achieve its goals without providing the necessary resources

This article was originally published in our newsletter "Mobility" Analysis, March 11, 2021. To receive future articles by email as soon as they are published, Subscribe now.

By 2030—that is, in just under 10 years— The French government has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to 1990 levels. However, we are nowhere near on track to meet that goal. This is the finding of a recent study conducted by Carbone 4 [1], which assessed enacted and proposed legislation against 11 indicators across the three sectors with the highest emissions (building, transportation, and agriculture). The 2030 targets are on track to be met for only 2 of the 11 indicators. This is also the view of the Citizens’ Climate Convention (CCC), which was tasked with proposing measures to achieve this 40% reduction and has just evaluated the government’s draft legislation resulting from its work. The verdict is clear: the CCC gives the “Climate and Resilience” bill a score of 3.3 out of 10 [2].

Looking more closely at the transportation sector, our study identifies the following three key drivers:

1) Growth in rail traffic Accounting for 1% of emissions while carrying 10% of passengers, rail traffic is expected to grow by 20% by 2030, according to the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC). However, it is noted that underinvestment in the train, intended primarily to offset losses related to the current health crisis rather than to renovate infrastructure. While investments currently stand at around 2 billion euros per year, they must reach 5 to 6 billion euros per year to achieve 20% growth by 2030. By comparison, the CCC had proposed increasing the budget of the AFITF (French Transport Infrastructure Financing Agency) by 1.1 billion euros per year, The government's stimulus plan certainly calls for 4.9 billion euros for the rail sector (including freight), but This is a one-time investment, spread over two years, and the government has not made any long-term commitments at this stage. Furthermore, the government did not wish to reduce the VAT on train tickets, which remains at 10% instead of the 5.5% requested by the CCC. It preferred to provide financial assistance to the Mobility Organizing Authorities. Finally, the CCC proposed harmonizing the attractive fares offered by certain regions across the entire country, but it is true that the government does not have the authority to set rail transport fares.

2) The increase in bicycle use Cycling should also become more widespread and increase fourfold by 2030, according to the SNBC’s goals. However, cycling is primarily the responsibility of local governments, which account for more than 90% of investment in cycling infrastructure. The national government should therefore act as a catalyst to create the right incentives, promote best practices, and maximize the leverage of its direct investments—which is not the case today. However, Even though the government could do more financially, its €50 million-a-year cycling plan is already unprecedented and is nearly on par with those of other neighboring countries. With regard to the CCC’s proposals, the government adopted the measures promoting cycling, although it scaled back their scope : an increase in the Sustainable Mobility Allowance to 500€/year, though it will not be made mandatory; an increase in the bicycle fund’s budget by 100 M€ over two years, though not on a permanent basis; and the creation of the “Coup de Pouce Vélo” program, which offers a subsidy for bicycle repairs and training with an instructor, valid only through March 31, 2021.

3) The widespread adoption of low-emission vehicles (electric, hybrid, biogas)According to the SNBC, the share of low-emission vehicles must reach 15% of the national vehicle fleet by 2030, but this will require measures far more extensive than those currently in place. In fact, these allowto contribute to financing just 3% of the fleet by 2030*. In terms of concrete measures:

• The incentives and penalties associated with the purchase of a clean or polluting vehicle are lower than the amounts requested by the CCC,
• The conversion incentive is not limited to low-emission vehicles, as recommended by the CCC,
• The government has proposed a three-year tax exemption on insurance policies for electric vehicles but has not adopted a tax structure based on vehicle emissions,
• A target for phasing out the sale of “polluting” vehicles " by 2030 has been set, with a very modest ban threshold, as it already represents the average emissions of vehicles sold today (95 gCO2/km NEDC, the former European emissions certification protocol),
• Finally, the government plans to phase out the TICPE refund—the fuel tax—for road transport between 2023 and 2030. However, this measure is contingent on there being a sufficient supply of clean vehicles and a sufficient refueling network, as well as on the harmonization of energy taxation at the European level.

Thus, of these three levers, only the modal share of cycling appears achievable with current measures, according to the Carbone 4 study, and for each of them, the CCC’s proposals were more ambitious:

Current Measures Planned by the Government vs. France’s 2030 Climate Goals (SNBC)

  Among the CCC’s other work, there are other topics worth considering (the CCC’s rating of the “Climate and Resilience” bill on the subject in question is shown in parentheses):

• Air Travel (2.8/10): a very limited resumption of the measures, it is worth noting that flights shorter than 2 hours and 30 minutes—instead of 4 hours—are prohibited,
• Port Areas (5.5/10): rather positive, the government has set aside 175 M€ from the stimulus package to make ports more environmentally friendly and has reduced taxes on electricity supplied to ships. But this scope of emissions is very limited, and the government has no direct influence over emissions from international shipping,
• Public Road Design (4.2/10): creation of park-and-ride facilities and the establishment of lanes reserved for public transit and car-sharing vehicles on highways and expressways; an increase in the number of Low-Emission Zones (LEZs) from 10 to 35, with the threshold lowered to 150,000 residents (compared to 100,000 residents for the CCC).

Partial implementation, subject to conditions, or for a limited period of time, while setting aside the most ambitious proposals (a ban on airport expansion and construction, a speed limit of 110 km/h on highways, etc.), The government sought to be accommodating and open to compromise regarding the proposals of the Citizens’ Convention, forgetting that it had itself set a target of a 40% reduction in emissions, to be achieved through the full range of measures. There is, therefore, a certain degree of schizophrenia on the part of the government, which (i) negotiates the measures proposed by the CCC without offering any alternative measures, which logically implies that the 40% reduction target will not be met, and (ii) at the same time, advocates for raising the target to a 55% reduction at the European level, which will naturally raise France's current target.

  Article written by Eloïse Dulac (Consultant), Florent Ollagnier (Consultant), and Nicolas Meunier (Senior Consultant) eloise.dulac@carbone4.comflorent.ollagnier@carbone4.comnicolas.meunier@carbone4.com*The share of new low-emission vehicles sold (e.g., 11% in 2020 [3]), which is the subject of much discussion, should be clearly distinguished from the share of such vehicles in the French vehicle fleet currently on the road.

Sources: [1] Is the French government providing the resources needed to achieve its climate goals?, Carbone 4 [2] Macron and Climate Change: 3.3 out of 10, According to the Citizens' Convention, Reporterre [3] Clean Car