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Between optimism and skepticism, what role will hydrogen play in carbon-free mobility?
Between optimism and skepticism, what role will hydrogen play in carbon-free mobility?
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The enthusiasm for hydrogen has shown no signs of waning in recent months—and that’s an understatement. While interest in this versatile molecule has been growing rapidly for the past two years, recent announcements by governments and other industry players have increased like never before. The COVID-19 health crisis appears to have acted as a catalyst, with stakeholders seeing hydrogen as the ideal solution for reconciling economic recovery with the low-carbon energy transition, particularly in the transportation of goods and people.
Overview of Listings
Before delving deeper into this connection with the decarbonization of the economy—particularly in the area of mobility—let’s recall some recent facts regarding the growing enthusiasm for hydrogen. First, from governments, because this is the most striking:
- €9 billion in investment for Germany as part of the stimulus package unveiled in June, with the goal of becoming the world’s leading supplier of hydrogen [1][2],
- €7 billion in investment for France (between 2020 and 2030) as part of the “France Relance” plan, including €3.4 billion allocated for the 2020–2023 period [3][4][5] (we’ll come back to this below)
- Portugal which hopes to host a facility for producing green hydrogen through electrolysis using solar energy, with an investment of nearly 3 billion euros [6]
- Spain which also calls for the deployment of 5,000 to 7,500 fuel-cell vehicles by 2030, with a longer-term roadmap (2050) involving an investment of 9 billion euros [7]
- 40 GW of electrolyzers for the production of renewable hydrogen and production of up to 10 Mt of renewable hydrogen in the EU by 2030, to the European Commission [8]
Not to mention the strategies already underway at the Japan, South Korea, United States or China, to name just the most important ones. Note that the amounts announced are significantly higher than what has been observed over the past 10 years, where investments ranged from 500 to 800 M€ across all countries [9]. This clearly demonstrates the shift in scale of ambition… which, however, remains an order of magnitude smaller than investments in electric vehicle battery production, estimated at approximately €100 billion worldwide by 2025 [10]. This enthusiasm is shared by industrial players Next (for various reasons we cannot go into here), and particularly in the area of mobility:
- Bosch which, through its CEO, called in late April for a shift toward the hydrogen economy [11]
- Airbus whose CEO, Guillaume Faury, stated in June that a “zero-emission” aircraft is feasible by 2035, thanks to direct-combustion hydrogen technology [12]
- BMW which announces that production of the hydrogen-powered X5 SUV will begin as early as 2022 [13]
- Hyundai which is exporting its first hydrogen-powered trucks to Europe, delivering 10 37-metric-ton trucks to Switzerland this summer [14]
- Samsung which, through its subsidiary SHI, entered into a partnership with Bloom Energy in June to develop and design ships equipped with fuel cells [15]
- SNCF whose CEO, Jean-Pierre Farandou, stated in June that he wants the SNCF to be a pioneer in hydrogen-powered trains [16]
- etc.
The list is far from exhaustive. In other words, the future of hydrogen seems intrinsically linked to the energy transition—and vice versa. Furthermore, if we take a closer look at how the media has reported on this enthusiasm for hydrogen, we quickly realize that Most of the statements focus on applications in the transportation sector (trucks, trains, planes, ships). What should we make of this?Hydrogen: A Molecule of Great Use to Industry First of all, to paraphrase the renowned energy expert Cédric Philibert (a former analyst at the International Energy Agency): "before becoming—perhaps—the clean energy of the future (well... the clean energy source of the future), Hydrogen is a dirty energy source of today. " [17]. Although it occurs naturally in various places around the world [18], hydrogen is in fact produced today almost exclusively by steam reforming of fossil methane, which results in approximately 1 billion metric tons of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere each year, or 2.5% of total CO2 emissions. It’s comparable to total maritime or air traffic. So it’s not a drop in the bucket! And what on earth is this hydrogen (about 60 Mt/year) good for, since it’s practically not used in transportation Today? Hydrogen is primarily used as raw material (and not as an energy source) to desulfurize petroleum fuels, produce synthetic fertilizers (through reaction with nitrogen from the air), and in metallurgy (reduction of iron ore). Therefore, before considering the use of hydrogen in transportation, Logically, the first natural applications for carbon-free hydrogen should be in the industrial sector. The German plan for massive support of the hydrogen sector explicitly mentions this [19]: our neighbors across the Rhine have a world-class heavy industry sector, and this fact has obviously not escaped their attention. Similarly, the European Commission’s hydrogen strategy, released in July [20], outlines a timeline in which Industrial applications take center stage, before transport:
- the construction of electrolysers to produce green hydrogen for industrial use (steel, chemicals, refineries) through 2024,
- followed by the creation of local hydrogen production sites, which will be connected to industrial users and buildings ("Hydrogen Valley," such as the AURA region) by 2030.
- As demand increases, these sites will be brought together to form the backbone of a major European hydrogen infrastructure.
France's Hydrogen Strategy In France, the details of the hydrogen strategy were unveiled on September 8 [5]. There are three priorities:
- Decarbonizing Industry by fostering the development of a French electrolysis industry
- Developing Heavy-Duty Transportation carbon-free hydrogen;
- Supporting Research and Innovation and skills development to foster the uses of tomorrow.
Furthermore, by 2023, half of the plan’s €7 billion will be spent primarily on Pillar 1 (see figure below), namely Decarbonizing industry using hydrogen produced by electrolysis, as France benefits from low-carbon electricity. The resulting emissions reductions compared to traditional methane steam reforming will be substantial.
Source: National Strategy for the Development of Carbon-Free Hydrogen in France
A quarter of the 2020–2023 budget will be allocated to developing the hydrogen sector for heavy-duty transportation (trucks, buses, garbage trucks, certain light commercial vehicles, and trains). This means that the French government, like Germany and the European Commission, has clearly recognized the importance of hydrogen as a means of decarbonizing industry as a priority: twice as much money will be allocated to this sector as to mobility.
This comes as no surprise, given what we’ve just explained. Furthermore, our latest assessments of the life-cycle carbon footprint of road vehicles (to be published soon—stay tuned!) shed additional light on the role hydrogen can play in decarbonizing mobility. Specifically, for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, electrolysis must be carried out using a very low-carbon electricity mix (on the order of 20 gCO2e/kWh, typically 100% renewable) for a hydrogen-powered vehicle to be on par with a bio-NGV or battery-powered vehicle. Given France’s average electricity mix of 50 gCO2/kWh (which is very low), hydrogen vehicles are already 40% more carbon-intensive than the alternatives mentioned above.
What about heavy-duty vehicles, which the government has clearly identified as a strategic priority? Our calculations show that for buses and heavy-duty vehicles (such as tractor-trailers), hydrogen produced from a 100% renewable energy mix delivers better carbon performance than bioNGV and is very close to that of battery technology. Furthermore, for these types of vehicles, not only will batteries regularly reach their limits (loss of payload, operational constraints), but bioNGV will likely not be produced in sufficient quantities to meet all of these heavy-duty transportation needs. Hydrogen applications for rail transport may also prove relevant for certain uses where electrification—even on a limited scale (using batteries)—is ruled out for economic or technical reasons. As for aviation, this remains a major question mark, as the director of the DGAC recently announced that we will have to wait until 2025 to determine whether the technologies will be mature enough to launch such an aircraft [21].
In conclusion, it seems to us that the government is right to focus on heavy-duty ground transportation in its hydrogen strategy, while prioritizing industrial applications. Indeed, as long as “green” hydrogen is not available on the market (or remains in its infancy), it is counterproductive to push hydrogen applications in transportation (especially light-duty mobility) with all one’s might at this time, since mature, readily available alternatives that are at least as low-carbon—such as bio-NGV or batteries—already exist. On the other hand, any “green” hydrogen molecule can already reduce emissions in the industrial sectors mentioned above. However, public and industrial stakeholders are right to invest in hydrogen mobility for the future. It will indeed be important for the French economy to have high-performance, competitive technologies in this field in order to serve international markets once the supply of “green” hydrogen is large enough to cover part of heavy-duty transportation, in addition to industrial needs.
Article written by Stéphane Amant (Senior Manager)
Sources:
[4] Le Figaro
[6] Hydrogentoday
[7] AFHYPAC [8] Hydrogentoday [9] IEA [10] McKinsey [11] Hydrogentoday [12] Southwest [13] Fuelcellsworks [14] h2-mobile [15] Bloomberg [16] The JDD [17] Cédric Philibert [18] Understanding Energy [19] Clean Energy Wire [20] Clean Energy Wire [21] The Tribune
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