The Development of Self-Driving Cars: Letting Go of the Wheel—Only to Watch CO2 Emissions Skyrocket?

This article was originally published in our newsletter "Mobility" Analysis, April 1, 2021.
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The latest rumor in the world of autonomous vehicles: Apple may decide not to partner with a major automaker and instead work on its own autonomous car project with Foxconn, its long-time partner for iPhones, and the Canadian auto parts supplier Magna [1]. Will we be seeing an “Apple Car” soon?

The enthusiasm of traditional players (but also (less traditional) The automotive industry's commitment to autonomous vehicles is well established. That of the government nor, as illustrated by France’s ambition in the report “ Development of Autonomous Vehicles: Strategic Guidelines for Public Policy " [2]. These enthusiastic actors, sometimes focused on comfort and safety, give little thought to whether the anticipated rise of autonomous vehicles is consistent with their own climate goals. What if we tried this exercise from their perspective: Is the rise of autonomous vehicles good news for the climate and for the transportation sector’s goal of decarbonization?

A Few Reasons for Hope

Autonomous vehicles [3] offer some reasons to believe they will make a positive contribution to decarbonizing the road transport sector. First of all, autonomous vehicles are most often viewed as equipped with an electric motor rather than thermal, and it could even become mandatory in some jurisdictions [4]. The technology used should also make it possible to optimize many aspects. For example, with regard to the vehicle itself, computer-aided optimization of braking and acceleration enables eco-driving performance that is beyond the reach of a human driver.

More broadly, at the level of the overall transportation system, Certain improvements, such as the development of platooning [5] or the optimization of intersections, could be valuable tools for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many reasons to be concerned

Despite these advantages, there are many reasons to be concerned about the impact of autonomous vehicles on GHG emissions. At the vehicle level, in-vehicle technology (radar, lidar, onboard computer, etc.) is far from neutral in terms of emissions during manufacturing and energy consumption during use, not to mention the extra weight this equipment adds to the vehicle [6]. The infrastructure outside the vehicles that is necessary for their autonomous operation (4G and likely 5G antennas, data centers, etc.) also consumes a significant amount of energy.

The main problems arise especially when we look beyond the vehicle itself. In fact, various rebound effects could negate any energy savings made possible by autonomous vehicles. The excellent report by the Forum Vies Mobiles “ Autonomous Vehicles: What Role Do They Play in the Green Transition of Mobility? " [7] lists six of them, including:

• Increasing Distancesand urban sprawl thanks to greater comfort and the ability to stop “wasting time” while driving
• Modal Shift toward cars due to competition from autonomous vehicles (private or shared) with public transportation
• The Drastic Drop in Shipping Costs which could lead to an increase in the number of deliveries—particularly those related to online sales—and the associated mileage

In short, the rise of autonomous vehicles could reinforce—or even strengthen—the preference for cars and road transportation, even though all transition scenarios agree that the share of road transportation must decrease in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement [8]. An Overall Unfavorable Situation

While the uncertainties associated with this type of forecast are high due to the long-term horizon and the behavioral factors at play, the scales seem to be tipping toward the negative side at this stage of the projections [9]. Perhaps there is still time to take the wheel again and check whether the path we are taking is indeed the one we want.

  ----- Article written by Clément Mallet (Senior Consultant) clement.mallet@carbone4.com

Sources: [1] Bloomberg [2] Ecologie.gouv [3] Here we are referring primarily to Level 4 and 5 autonomous vehicles, which require limited driver supervision. [4] See the example of California, TechCrunch [5] Platooning, which means “grouping in a platoon” in French, involves reducing the distance between several vehicles traveling in succession and, among other benefits, helps reduce air resistance and thus fuel consumption. [6] Estimated increase in energy consumption of between 3% and 20% Gawron et al. (2018) [7] Vies Mobile Forum [8] See, for example, in France the Reference Scenario for the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC) (a decline from 85% to 78% of total passenger-kilometers between 2015 and 2050) or the scenario ZEN 2050 by EPE; and, at the international level, the various scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA). [9] Quantitatively, the Forum Vies Mobiles cites studies by the U.S. Department of Energy, the IEA, and Stephens et al., respectively, which present the following results in terms of energy consumption (optimistic scenario/pessimistic scenario): -90%/+250%, -40%/+100%, -58%/+250%.