The French Space Industry Facing Planetary Limits and Resource Depletion

Environmental upheavals (climate change, biodiversity loss, resource shortages, etc.) are now affecting all economic sectors. In order to prepare for these challenges and ensure that the space sector is resilient in the face of their consequences Carbone 4 conducted a study in partnership with CNES in order to identify the various environmental risks (planetary boundaries and resource depletion) to which the French space industry is and will inevitably be exposed.

Scope of the Study

The study covers all types of French space activities, including the development, launch, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning phases, with two time horizons: 2030 and 2050. However, it does not take into account downstream applications (data distribution and use, user terminals, etc.).

The French space activities discussed here include:

• Activities related to ground-based segments: launch site, control center, transmission and reception stations, digital simulator, mission control center, etc.
• Activities related to the space sector: launch vehicles, satellites, payloads, space stations, etc.

The study is limited to the “Earth” sphere (including the upper atmosphere) and does not address orbital risks (space congestion, orbit hijacking, light and radiofrequency pollution, etc.) or potential extra-atmospheric mining activities. It examines the entire ecosystem supporting the space sector: the government, agencies, industry, and the academic community.

Study Results

This prospective study of environmental risks identified 44 Risks to the French Space Industry, details of which are available in the appendix to the report. Thanks to the support of several industry experts, this list—which is by nature non-exhaustive—has made it possible to develop several hypotheses, summarized below, regarding the space industry’s vulnerability to environmental risks.

The main risks highlighted by the study relate to impacts on the upper atmosphere, which are currently little known but have the potential to affect the ozone layer and the climate, and which could lead to new regulations. At present, the consequences of emissions into the upper atmosphere resulting from the launch and reentry of man-made objects do indeed constitute an academic gray area.

For their part, supply risks associated with raw materials critical to the space industry (such as copper, nickel, or cobalt) have a low potential impact when the geological distribution of these materials is diversified on a global scale. Specifically, in the event of an imbalance between supply and demand in the commodity markets, An increase in the price of raw materials would have a limited impact on the space industry. In fact, the space industry as a whole is characterized by significant research and development activities and lower production volumes compared to other traditional industrial sectors (the automotive industry, heavy industry, and the aerospace industry), which have higher production volumes.

On the other hand, even though the supply of most raw materials does not pose a major risk to the industry’s operations, it is important to note here that This does not absolve the French space industry of its responsibility regarding environmental pollution and human rights issues related to the mining of the metals it uses.

Finally, this study highlighted two other types of risks that are considered highly critical: those related to products specific to the space industry (e.g., low-outgassing products) whose production is vulnerable because their formulations involve a very large number of substances, and those concerning products with complex supply and production chains and potentially vulnerable to geopolitical tensions (titanium, semiconductors, rare earth elements).

These three elements (titanium metal, semiconductors, and rare earth elements) are the subject of a more in-depth analysis focused specifically on geopolitical risks.

Conclusion for the sector

The analysis of environmental risks to the French space industry conducted as part of this study made it possible to determine two major topics: (i) changes in regulations related to climate change and ozone layer depletion, and (ii) supply risks, particularly for titanium metal, semiconductors, and rare earth elements.

The first topic should require an in-depth study of the effects of emissions in the upper atmosphere on the ozone layer and the climate generated during launch and reentry. At the same time, a the industry's ambitious decarbonization plan must be implemented to limit the impact of the space sector’s activities on the climate. A proactive commitment by the industry at the European level on the occasion of the discussions about the space law also warrants further study. Finally, targeted studies on the impacts of these activities on biodiversity—particularly at the local level—could be conducted.

The second issue, concerning the risks associated with the supply of critical raw materials for the sector, may be addressed through an action plan tailored to each specific resource.

• For titanium metal, alternatives to titanium imported from Russia must be explored as soon as possible, by actively contributing to increased domestic production volumes and by forging closer ties with production networks in other countries, particularly Japan. Participation in the development of a European recycling sector should also be considered.
• For semiconductors, helping to relocate European production appears to be the best option for reducing the industry’s vulnerability to potential tensions between China and Taiwan. To ensure its resilience, this European industry will need, in particular, to develop a dedicated strategy to reduce its supply risks for neon and palladium, which are two essential elements in semiconductor production. An adaptation strategy aimed at reducing the risk of water stress in production basins will also need to be developed.
• For "rare" earths, The European space industry has several options for reducing its dependence on Chinese production. First, after conducting an assessment of its specific needs, it can build up a strategic stockpile of the rare materials most critical to its operations. It can also explore opportunities for partnerships with U.S. and Australian producers. Finally, it will need to conduct ongoing analyses to identify substitutes for and/or reduce the use of rare earth elements in its spacecraft.

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