Energy Transition: How Many Wars Will It Take Before We Take Action?

The war unleashed by Vladimir Putin serves as a stark reminder of our lack of foresight, vision, and courage regarding our energy independence—a lack that paralyzes us on the geopolitical stage. It also reminds us of the two sides of the energy transition: on the one hand, our dependence on fossil fuels, and on the other, the climate change caused by their combustion.

We are heavily dependent on other countries for our energy needs

In Western Europe, only the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Norway produce hydrocarbons in significant quantities, but this production accounts for less than 30% of European domestic consumption, and it is on the decline.

In fact, Europe imports most of its oil and gas from Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, and, above all, Russia, with Russia’s share peaking at 26% for crude oil and 38% for natural gas in 2020. ^[1]

Unsurprisingly, our energy independence is far from guaranteed:

The underlying dependency ratio is calculated as the energy balance (imports minus exports) divided by energy consumption (domestic production plus the balance). The calculation is based on primary energy.

Let's free ourselves so we can better control our geopolitical situation and fund jobs at home

What is preventing France from phasing out fossil fuels?
Need we remind you that France spends 30 to 75 billion euros each year on gas and oil? All that money ends up in the pockets of foreign countries—including Russia—rather than funding local jobs. ^[2]

There's no choice: either we take the initiative and plan ambitiously, or we just go along with things.

And the longer we wait, the harder it becomes to make a successful transition.

Today, we are subject to the framework imposed by Russia, which is putting particular pressure on gas prices—which have increased sixfold since January 2021 and are currently hovering around 100 €/MWh on wholesale markets in Europe. Oil prices are also on the rise, having increased from $50 to $100 per barrel since January 2021. ^[3] France and the European Union find themselves hampered on the geopolitical stage because of this enormous dependence.
And tomorrow, gas and oil will be scarcer—and likely even more expensive—so the situation we’ll face will be even harsher for French citizens.

Short-term measures, such as the energy subsidy and price caps, are merely stopgap measures. Even though they help cushion the financial blow for the lowest-income households, they amount to giving even more money to Russia, whose oil and gas exports account for 30% of its GDP. In this way, we are indirectly financing Russia’s war against Ukraine. ^[4]

So we’re being told to break free from Russian gas by buying LNG from the United States or the Middle East. That’s basically the same as saying we’re switching from one form of dependence to another. What will happen when the Americans run out of gas or decide to keep it for themselves? Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction, processing, and transportation of American LNG—which comes in part from shale gas—are twice as high as those from Russian gas and four times higher than those from Norwegian gas. ^[5].

Why not reconcile geopolitical ambitions with climate goals?

Because that is the huge benefit of breaking free once and for all from our dependence on fossil fuels: complying with the Paris Agreement, and thereby reducing the impact of future climate and geopolitical crises.

First, let’s remember that measures to reduce our energy consumption (energy efficiency and conservation) are essential and, by extension, reduce our dependence on natural gas. The key factors identified in the publication “Is the French Government Providing the Resources Needed to Achieve Its Climate Ambitions?” offer a useful framework for understanding the priorities for reducing emissions, such as energy-efficient building renovations, for example. ^[6]

So let's be truly ambitious.

Here are three complementary, concrete, and far-reaching proposals to quickly end our dependence on natural gas:

The most feasible proposal concerns the residential sector. Banning the replacement of gas-fired boilers follows the path already laid out by the ban on installing oil-fired boilers in all homes, which took effect on July 1, 2022. And alternative solutions do exist. Take, for example, heat pumps, which can reduce energy consumption by a factor of 3 to 4. Given current gas prices, they are nearly cost-effective even without subsidies, though some financial assistance could be considered. This would also help fund local jobs in manufacturing and installation. To put this in perspective, we’re talking about €1 billion per year for a €1,000 subsidy, compared to the €1.2 billion the government will spend to offset rising gas prices. ^[7][8]

Achieving greater energy independence—and thus greater geopolitical freedom—is within our reach. Let’s hope this war finally opens our eyes and leads us to take real action.