Spring 2022: A Series of Disasters and Threats to Agricultural Production

The IPCC announced this in the second volume of its Sixth Assessment Report, published last February and devoted to the impacts of climate change: “Climate change will place increasing pressure on food production and access to food, particularly in vulnerable regions, thereby compromising food security and nutrition (high confidence). The increased frequency, intensity, and severity of droughts, floods, and heat waves, as well as the continued rise in sea level, will increase risks to food security (high confidence).^[1][...] "

Floods in Canada, a heat wave in northern India and Pakistan, floods in India and Bangladesh, drought in Europe…

Here is an overview (not exhaustive) of the extreme weather events of spring 2022 and their impacts on agricultural production. These are a series of disasters that are likely to occur more frequently and with greater intensity in the coming years, as we continue to damage the Earth’s climate.

Drought in Europe and France:

The European Drought Observatory (EDO) maintains maps showing soil drought conditions across Europe. The drought of spring 2022 is not limited to France: much of Europe’s soil is drier than normal, which primarily affects agriculture (this is referred to as agricultural drought).

France experienced a 20% deficit in cumulative precipitation between September 2021 and April 2022, on average, across its metropolitan territory. According to Météo France (as of mid-May), two-thirds of mainland France “is already experiencing dry to very dry soil conditions.” Some regions have been or are more affected than others: PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Pays de la Loire, Grand-Est, Hauts-de-France... As of late May, 24 departments are subject to water use restrictions of varying severity.

In addition to the lack of rainfall, the hot weather in May accelerated evaporation, which exacerbated the soil drought. The lack of rain during the winter also hindered the replenishment of groundwater and waterways.^[2], which will likely have an impact on sectors other than agriculture, such as electricity generation, tourism, and river transport.

What are the effects of agricultural drought on crops?

• Everyone is talking about the effects on wheat and grain crops (winter grains):
  • Heat waves between April and July increase the risk of sunscald (small, misshapen berries)
  • A water deficit between April and June hinders grain filling
• Other impacts include spring crops such as corn, sunflowers, and sugar beets (risk of failure to germinate), as well as grapevines (slowed growth of shoots and roots, reduced flowering).

Beyond this specific episode, it is the long-term trend that is cause for concern and indicative of climate change: Météo France reports that droughts are more common since the early 2000s, more intense, longer and affect a larger portion of our territory (from an average of 5% in the 1960s to 10% in recent years).

The climate projections highlighted by the IPCC predict an increase in droughts across much of Europe (with a high level of confidence for the Mediterranean basin and a moderate level of confidence for Northern Europe (excluding the Scandinavian countries and the United Kingdom, for which the trend is still uncertain).

Heat Wave in India and Pakistan

India and Pakistan have experienced a heat wave unprecedented in its duration (March through May), its early onset (March is usually a relatively mild month) and its intensity (Temperatures far exceeded 40°C and even exceeded 50°C in some areas). This extreme situation resulted in loss of life, landfill and forest fires, power outages, water shortages, and crop losses.

Agricultural losses have prompted the Indian government to ban wheat exports (unless special authorization is granted) in order to secure the country’s food supply and curb price speculation. The government expects wheat production to be 6% lower than forecast.

Floods in India, Bangladesh, and Canada

In late May, northeastern India and Bangladesh experienced historic flash floods. Among the many human and material losses, agricultural land was flooded. The impacts on agricultural production are currently being assessed.

The Canadian province of Manitoba has been hit by heavy rains and significant flooding in the Red River Valley. According to NASA, this is reportedly the most severe flooding of the decade, which is delaying grain planting, leaching nitrogen from the soil, and casting a shadow over optimistic grain yield forecasts. In the United States, North Dakota and Minnesota have also been affected.

Intense rainfall and the resulting high water levels and flooding are expected to intensify in South and Southeast Asia and in Canada.

What are the prospects and solutions?

The solution is twofold and requires action on both mitigation and adaptation:

• Attenuation : The message is repeated ad nauseam, but it still isn’t being implemented on a scale commensurate with the stakes… We must undertake systemic transformations in order to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible and achieve global carbon neutrality by 2050.
• Adaptation : Our planet has warmed by more than 1°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Adaptation measures must be implemented today, regardless of the warming trajectory we follow in the future.

In the agricultural sector, this requires profound changes in practices (such as modifying crop rotations, adopting agroforestry, planting hedgerows, and using species that are more resilient to drought conditions, for example). The use and sharing of water resources must also be debated and subject to strict and equitable legislation for the various users.