Decline in France’s domestic emissions in 2023: What about transportation?

Since the 1990s in France, the country's territorial emissions have fallen from 539 MtCO2e (1990) to 385 MtCO2e (2023, preliminary figures)^[1], representing a decrease by about 1% per year on average. To comply with the Paris Agreement, a reduction in global total emissions A 5% annual increase is necessary, through 2050.

Recently, the French government announced an unprecedented decline in France's domestic emissions this year compared to the previous year of4.8%^[2]. However, not all sectors of the French economy are following this overall trend. For example, emissions from the energy sector are falling sharply (-14%), while emissions from the transportation sector are down by only 2%.

In France, as in many Western countries, the transportation sector is both the sector that emits the most greenhouse gases and the only sector whose current emissions exceed those of 1990. In 2022, it amounted to 130 MtCO2e, or 32% of France's emissions.

Therefore, seeing a decline in these emissions in 2023—even if it is smaller than in other sectors—is encouraging. However, can we conclude from this that we are on the right track when it comes to transportation?

The Shows territorial are the shows limited to the borders of France. Therefore, they are not not representative of all emissions from the transportation sector in France. In fact, International transportation, particularly air travel, is excluded from this calculation. Nevertheless, they account for a significant portion of France's emissions. While emissions from domestic flights have increased by 20% this year (exceeding pre-crisis levels in 2019), those from International stocks jumped 27%.

Furthermore, in the aviation sector, non-CO2 effects (including contrails) are not recorded in the current calculation method (See our aviation FAQ for more details on these effects).

Thus, taking into account all types ofinternational broadcasts (air, sea, and river), the level of emissions from transportation between 2022 and 2023 is therefore the same(146 Mt CO2e). When we factor in the non-CO2 effects of air travel, we even see an increase of A 2.5% increase in transportation emissions between 2022 and 2023^[3].

In regional broadcasts, approximately 90% are caused by road transport. In its latest publication, CITEPA notes an encouraging 3% decline for this mode of transportation, mainly carried out through freight transport by trucks and vans (2/3 of the decline) and to a lesser extent, by passenger travel by car (1/3 of the decline). According to CITEPA, this trend is due to several combined factors:

• "One-off price" effects with a rise in gas prices that may explain the drop in fuel consumption.
• More structural effects For example, an increase in the number of electric vehicles in the fleet. In fact, the automotive industry has seen an increase in the share of electric vehicles among new registrations over the past year: 17% in 2023 compared to 13% in 2022^[4]. Or changes in behavior, such as increased use of carpooling or a shift toward other modes of transportation.

Further analysis, once the data becomes available, will provide a more precise explanation of the reasons for this decline, particularly with regard to freight transport (for example, by examining ton-kilometers for the year 2023).

What conclusions can we draw from these initial analyses?

The decline in domestic transportation emissions reported by CITEPA reflects a an encouraging development, though insufficient to comply with the transport-specific objectives outlined in the France 2030 plan^[5]a 4.1% year-over-year decline. All the more so that when considering the full scope, including international emissions, transportation emissions increased in 2023. On the other hand, The decline in road transportation is primarily attributable to cyclical factors (such as rising fuel prices) and is therefore not solely the result of long-term reduction efforts. To meet the government’s 2030 targets (in 6 years), we’ll need to step up our efforts.