How will we get around after the lockdown?

This article was originally published in our "Décryptage Mobilité" newsletter. To receive future articles by email as soon as they are published, Subscribe now. By Célia Foulon – Consultant

The lifting of lockdown restrictions in France is scheduled for May 11. We’ll return to work, resume some of our leisure activities, and travel will gradually become part of our daily lives again. But it’s a safe bet that the health crisis will have an impact on our travel habits. For example, who would want to risk their life by cramming into a subway car or a bus if they’re packed?

A Rush to Buy Cars?

While some people will have no choice (or won’t be afraid) and will take public transportation, others will turn to alternatives that allow them to avoid crowded conditions. An Ipsos survey reveals thatIn China, there has been an increase in private car use following the lifting of lockdown restrictions, at the expense of public transportation ^[1]. According to that same survey, 66% of Chinese people who do not currently own a car would like to buy one within the next six months—the vast majority for health reasons. This phenomenon is especially true for residents of large cities or areas hardest hit by COVID-19. Unfortunately for the climate, the trends have not changed, and SUVs are by far the top choice in purchase intentions (47%). One small consolation is that electric vehicles are the most popular choice, accounting for 59% of purchase intentions. So the risk is very real: the coronavirus could breathe new life into the era of car-centric living and single-occupant car use in major cities, even though this mode of transportation threatens the very breath of humanity^[2]. And yet, how can we blame drivers for simply wanting to protect themselves and others from a virus whose dangers we know all too well? What other alternatives do we have?

Why not ride a bike?

In many cities around the world, bicycles have been promoted as a transportation solution that combats traffic congestion, pollution, and overcrowding. Cities such as Bogotá, Berlin, and Mexico City took advantage of the decrease in road traffic during the lockdown to create bike lanes as alternatives to public transportation ^[3]. In France, cities such as Nice, Bordeaux, Montpellier, and Paris are beginning to roll out temporary bike lanes. In Paris, the RER Vélo project will be accelerated so that the first bike lanes (which will be temporary before becoming permanent) can be opened in time for the lifting of lockdown restrictions ^[4]. The good news is that, following the December strikes, many people are likely already equipped to get around without public transportation. And for all those who haven’t taken the plunge yet—and whose bikes are gathering dust in the garage— The government is proposing a 50-euro reimbursement check to repair the approximately 20 million bicycles that are unused but present throughout the country^[5]. The government's intention is clear: to get the French back on their bikes and prevent a surge in car use like the one seen in China.

A decrease in our travel?

And while biking (or walking, for that matter!) isn't an option for everyone, At least the lockdown did have the merit of making us think about our travel habits. According to a study by ObSoCo ^[6], 62% of people in lockdown appreciate spending less time commuting, and 38% of French people say they have realized that they can get around within a smaller area, on foot or by bike. This suggests that we may begin to rethink our daily commutes, which could lead to a reduction in the distances we travel. The lockdown also gave one in four employees the opportunity to try working from home for the first time, and despite the sometimes challenging conditions (children and/or a spouse at home, unsuitable equipment and furniture, etc.), the experience was a positive one for more than half of the remote workers, and many would like to be able to work from home more regularly once lockdown restrictions are lifted. But that’s not all! This study also reveals that the French, after drastically reducing their travel for two months, say they mostly in favor of measures to limit their travel in order to combat the climate crisis, but on the condition that such restrictions are equitable and do not allow the wealthiest to be exempt from them. This gives us cause, on the one hand, to reflect on the importance of organizing a socially just transition and, on the other hand, to reaffirm the questioning of the relevance and necessity of much of our travel. Our travel habits will therefore be significantly impacted by the health crisis. And while the outcome of the difficult choice between public transit, driving, biking, or walking remains uncertain, one thing is for sure: we can’t wait for May 11!

Sources: ^[1]Ipsos Study^[2]Le Monde^[3]The Echoes^[4]Île-de-France Region^[5]Le Parisien^[6]Mobile Lives Forum