France's Electricity (and Energy) Mix: Let's Talk About Consumption Before Production

To address the climate challenge, as all transition scenarios show, we must both: significantly reduce our energy consumption and replace fossil fuels with low-carbon energy sources. Nevertheless, the legislative agenda—particularly regarding the electricity mix—makes “producing more” the central focus: the laws that have been passed or proposed are aimed at accelerating both renewable and nuclear power generation. Demand management has been relegated to the background.

And yet, the best energy is the energy we don't use

Indeed, all energy comes at a cost to consumers and the environment. In 2021, 25% of households were struggling to pay their energy bills^[1]. Even with low-carbon methods, manufacturing a solar panel or burning wood still generates greenhouse gas emissions, takes up land, and consumes materials that France does not have. Furthermore, if our use of fossil fuels does not decrease, greenhouse gas emissions will not be reduced by the development of low-carbon energy sources.

Reducing energy consumption involves effectiveness and simplicity.

• Energy efficiency means using less energy for the same purpose. Think about building insulation: you don't change the heating temperature, but you use less energy.
• Energy efficiency means questioning our energy habits in order to identify the most appropriate ones. In a home, this would mean turning the thermostat down to 19°C, heating only the rooms that are in use, or living in a home of a reasonable size.

These two approaches are different in nature but require significant financial, behavioral, and/or organizational investments.

Electricity Generation: Short-Term Outlook Compromised by Uncertainty Regarding the Availability of Nuclear Power Plants

The current nuclear power fleet is approaching an average age of 40 years^[2], the initial service life specified for these reactors. To extend their service life beyond that, a major refurbishment program (known as a "major overhaul"^[3]) is currently being implemented, reactor by reactor, with approval from the independent nuclear safety authority.

An aging reactor generally means longer maintenance periods and more frequent problems^[4]. About ten reactors were recently shut down unexpectedly after corrosion problems were detected^[5]. As a result, in 2022, nuclear power generation reached its lowest level since 1988^[6]. The French power grid held up, in part thanks to imports from our neighbors—a first since 1980^[7]. And this is no small matter for the climate. Because our neighbors have electricity mixes with higher carbon emissions than ours, and also because our fossil-fuel power plants were in operation more often, the carbon intensity of electricity consumed in France increased by 20% in 2022 compared to the previous five years^[8].

Against a backdrop of ongoing strain on Europe's gas supply^[9], energy crises will most likely occur again in the coming years. The government is taking the risk of supply disruptions between now and 2030 very seriously^[10].

What should we do in the short term?

First, scale up existing initiatives focused on energy efficiency and conservation so that we can take action rather than simply react. During the winter of 2022–2023, excluding weather-related factors, electricity consumption fell by 9%^[11], and a 6% increase in natural gas prices^[12]. It is difficult to determine how much of this is due to proactive frugality in a context where soaring prices have forced people to tighten their belts. However, there are initiatives that deserve to be rolled out on a large scale very quickly, such as contests^[13] or apps^[14] energy conservation, in order to change our relationship with energy, this precious resource. More broadly, it is imperative toexpand energy efficiency initiatives across all sectors, starting with the energy-efficient renovation of buildings.

Second, accelerate the deployment of renewable power generation (wind, solar), the only means of production that can be built quickly^[15]. It’s a decision we don’t regret: either they will help offset shortfalls in nuclear power generation, or they will help prevent emissions in neighboring countries by replacing fossil fuels. According to RTE, French solar and wind power generation prevented the emission of 22 MtCO2e in Europe in 2019.^[16] which is as much as the emissions from the waste sector in France.

How should we think about our electricity system in the long term?

Electricity will play a key role in decarbonizing the economy's energy use. Think of electric vehicles or heat pumps. According to the National Low-Carbon Strategy^[17], which sets out the greenhouse gas emissions trajectories that France must adhere to through 2050, total energy consumption is expected to decrease by about half, while the share of electricity is projected to rise from about 25% to more than 50% between 2015 and 2050.

Nevertheless, electrification must proceed in a measured manner. RTE has very recently revised upward its projections for the increase in electricity consumption^[18] by 2035: a 10% to 20% increase compared to two years ago. To accelerate the decarbonization of our economy and bring production back home on a massive scale, the solution is to produce even more, since energy conservation is “no longer an option.”

The future remains uncertain, but there will likely be more and more crises ahead. Using less energy gives us the flexibility to strengthen our resilience.Planning a return to sustainable consumption levels should be the priority—a prerequisite for determining the future capacity of our power generation fleet. And yet, the path toward a highly energy-efficient society still seems a long way off.

On the production front, we have several options available to us. As for the revival of nuclear power, building 14 EPR-2 reactors by 2050 is a major industrial challenge given the expertise required. On the other hand, the technical difficulties of a 100% renewable electricity mix are often highlighted. Integrating such a large amount of variable energy into the grid presents real challenges: demand flexibility, storage, controllable capacity, and so on. But outside of France, many countries are moving in this direction and developing solutions for the future. In 2023, global investment in solar photovoltaics and wind power is expected to reach $600 billion—10 times more than investment in nuclear power^[19]. After all, isn't the main limitation of such a scenario for France actually something else? Deploying renewable energy requires administrative permits, the acceptance of local communities, and a much more developed industrial sector. Without curbing demand, is it realistic to build so many solar and wind power facilities so quickly?

Ultimately, the share of renewable energy in France’s electricity mix will very likely exceed 50% by 2050, which is the point at which all of RTE’s scenarios converge.^[20]. Usage patterns will become more flexible to adapt to these new production methods. Think of an electric vehicle (or the battery of an electric bike) that will recharge in the middle of the day when the sun is at its highest point, rather than at 7 p.m. on the way home. Our entire relationship with time will have to be reinvented.

Let's flip the logic

In conclusion, Getting bogged down in a technical debate between nuclear power and renewables obscures the necessary sociocultural transformation of our economic system. There is no doubt that technology is part of the solution, but as Einstein said, “A problem cannot be solved by thinking in the same way it was created.” So let’s focus on controlling our consumption before we debate production.

Many scenarios that assume a significant reduction in our energy consumption (ADEME Scenarios 1 and 2, the negaWatt scenario, and the “moderation” variant of the RTE scenarios) show us the way forward. There’s no doubt that it will take political courage to implement alternatives to the “car-centric” model.^[21] or even the "hyper-consumerist society." But here's the good news, Being energy-efficient means a more balanced trade deficit, greater geopolitical independence, more local jobs, and better control over energy costs. So, what are we waiting for?