15 million electric cars in France: Is a blackout just around the corner?

This article was originally published in our "Décryptage Mobilité" newsletter. To receive future articles by email as soon as they are published, Subscribe now. By Stéphane Amant, Senior Manager

RTE, the national electricity transmission system operator, has just published an analysis that debunks some common misconceptions frequently cited against battery-powered electric vehicles [1]. In summary, This research report provides concrete answers to concerns that, while certainly legitimate, are in fact unsubstantiated. For example, even with a fleet of electric vehicles numbering around 15 million in 2035—representing approximately 40% of the French fleet by that time—not only will the The corresponding electricity demand would be limited to just 8% of total production, but above all, the increase in power demand attributable to periods of heavy traffic (such as the start of vacation or weekend travel) would be less than or equal to 8 GW, which, according to RTE, is largely manageable by the power grid (with the possible exception of the Christmas period, should a cold snap occur at the same time). The report actually highlights that it is indeed “daily” trips that pose the main challenge for the power grid. In this scenario, the ability to manage vehicle charging (the well-known technology Vehicle-to-Grid, or V2G) would clearly be beneficial because, in addition to avoiding any risk of a blackout, it would also provide an opportunity for theoverall network balance, particularly in light of the growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. However, even without the ability to control the system, RTE’s calculations show that the The criterion for electricity supply security is met even under the most unfavorable conditions (i.e., without charging management, with nearly 12 million electric vehicles). In and of itself, charging management is therefore not a prerequisite for significant electrification of France’s vehicle fleet over the next 15 years, but it will need to be implemented beyond that timeframe. To be completely transparent, let’s keep in mind that this report was produced in collaboration with AVERE, an association that advocates for the interests of stakeholders in the electric mobility sector in France. However, RTE’s technical and economic analyses are generally considered authoritative and are recognized for their rigor, so we can conclude that The findings highlighted in this study are largely indisputable. This leads us to conclude that it is high time to stop scaring ourselves about the impact of the large-scale deployment of battery-powered electric vehicles on the French power grid. The most significant challenges facing electromobility lie elsewhere and, broadly speaking, involve finding the right levers to accelerate the adoption of this sustainable solution for the climate, within the vehicle fleet and bus fleets. Here are a few examples (this list is not exhaustive):

• Require, through regulation, that corporate fleets include a certain percentage of electric vehicles to then supply the used-car market for private individuals at moderate purchase prices
• Encourage manufacturers to offer products that are better suited to households' financial means and more in line with the rapid decarbonization of the vehicle fleet (which, in effect, means limiting as much as possible the behemoths of the road—SUVs with 80 kWh of battery capacity or more)
• Switch to(nearly) cobalt-free battery chemistries
• Develop an optimized network of charging infrastructure across the region, with a major discussion needed regarding charging speeds for long-distance travel, as the German approach to ultra-fast charging does not seem to us to be the right solution for making electric mobility more widely accessible
• Ensure that Europe takes the lead in second-generation batteries (post-2025, for example, with solid-state lithium batteries)
• Linking Household Adoption of Electric Vehicles with Bundled Public Transportation Services for long-distance travel and Electric vehicle rental at your destination
• And perhaps the most difficult part: making people understand that the necessary decarbonization of the transportation system depends not only on technology (whether electric or bio-NGV), but also on a a new approach to mobility, via a increased use of active modes of transportation, to the public transportation and all forms of sharing of individual resources (carpooling, carsharing, etc.)

Finally, let’s use this article as an opportunity to revisit a key aspect of the transition in the mobility of goods and people that relates to technological choices: we must stop pitting alternatives to petroleum-based fuels against one another, but promote them collectively based on their relevance to actual use, or even combine them. Thus, bioNGV, carbon-free hydrogen, and (reasonably sized) batteries are all solutions that offer major advantages for decarbonizing transportation. Opponents of the energy transition and other advocates of the status quo are powerful enough that we should not make their task any easier by engaging in counterproductive conflicts among allies with shared objectives.

Article written by Stéphane Amant – Senior Manager Sources: [1] RTE