A 2.5% decrease in CO2 emissions in 2018 compared to 2017 in the European Union: Is that a good result?

A Reminder of the EU’s Ambition for Its Territorial Emissions

“ Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) from the combustion of fossil fuels have decreased significantly from 2.5% in the European Union in 2018 "compared to the previous year." This data, published by Eurostat on May 8^[1] was widely reported in the media and presented as good news. Indeed, CO2 emissions had increased by 1.8% between 2016 and 2017: the EU therefore appears to be heading in the right direction. It is worth noting that in 2014, the European Union committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. At the request of the Parliament and the Council, the Commission presented its “strategic and long-term vision” last November for a European economy that is “prosperous, modern, competitive, and carbon-neutral by 2050.”^[2]. A neutrality strategy would put the Union on an ambitious reduction path, consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. It is important to note that The Union's commitment applies only to emissions generated on European soil, but not on emissions from imports into the EU, which, according to Eurostat’s calculations, accounted for approximately 16% of the total European carbon footprint in 2017^[3] and that follow an upward slope.^[4]

-2.5% is far from enough to meet the EU's carbon neutrality goal

If maintained over time, the 2.5% reduction in CO2 emissions would be in line with the EU’s 2030 target for reducing CO2 emissions^[5] but it is not sufficient on its own to achieve the Union’s climate goal, as it applies to a reduced emissions baseline (80 to 85% of the total). When we talk about climate, we need to consider all greenhouse gases, not just CO2 : So let's wait for the complete figures before claiming that we're on the right track. Above all, let's keep in mind thatA rate of -2.5% per year would be far from sufficient to meet the 1.5°C target at the EU level by 2050. In fact, according to data published by the European Commission in late 2018 in its report “A Clean Planet for All,” an average annual reduction of 7%^[6] A reduction in CO2 emissions (6% for all greenhouse gases) is required between now and 2050 to meet the 1.5°C target and achieve carbon neutrality.

Justine Mossé, a consultant at Carbone 4

^[1] Eurostat - Press Release of May 8, 2019 – “Preliminary Estimates of CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption”

^[2] A Clean Planet for All – A European Long-Term Strategic Vision for a Prosperous, Modern, Competitive, and Climate-Neutral Economy

^[3] From a “consumption” perspective, that is, taking into account products and services imported and consumed within Europe. Note: The method used to calculate these avoided emissions is not flawless, as it assigns imported products the hypothetical carbon footprint they would have had if they had been produced in the European Union.

^[4] 1 metric ton of CO2 equivalent per capita in 2012, 1.13 in 2014, 1.18 in 2017 (source: Eurostat)

^[5] Carbon 4 Analysis Based on the EU’s Targets and Historical Data (sources: European Commission and I4CE, Key Climate Figures—France, Europe, and the World, 2019 edition)

^[6] Carbon 4 Analysis Based on Data from the 1.5 TECH and 1.5 LIFE Scenarios Published by the European Union